OECD macro trading strategy
Single-indicator OECD macro trading strategyThe OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles - fluctuation in the output gap, i.e. fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. This approach, focusing on turning points (peaks and troughs), results in CLIs that provide qualitative rather than quantitative information on short-term economic movements. The phases and patterns in CLIs are likely to be followed by the business cycle. source
Idea: Use turning points of OECD-CLI indicator for the derivation of trading signals
In the following, select the OECD indicator from which you want to derive the trading signals. Furthermore, you also have to choose which ticker you want to trade on the basis of the chosen indicator ('Apply to ticker').
The OECD indicators are lagged by about fourty business days. Those lags have been taken into account for the performance calculation.
Typical indicator - ticker combinations are:
Euro 19 + DAX
Euro 19 + MDAX
Euro 19 + SDAX
OECD + DAX
OECD + MDAX
OECD + SDAX
OECD + SMIC
OECD + MSCI World
Please notice: OECD indicators are subject to revisions. See here for further information.
Overview of current OECD allocation:
|Indicator||Long / Short||Avg. duration long [months]||Avg. duration short [months]|
|Germany||Long since 2 months||11.8||13.4|
|Switzerland||Long since 2 months||13.5||11.6|
|EURO Area||Long since 1 months||14||14.1|
|USA||Long since 2 months||9.5||11.4|
|OECD||Long since 3 months||9.8||11.1|
Typical combinations are (Germany + DAX) + (Euro Zone 19, EuroStoxx50Perf), (OECD + MSCI_World_Gross_Return) + (Euro Zone 19, EuroStoxx50Perf), or (USA + SP500TR) + (OECD, MSCI_World_Gross_Return)